Capacity & growthalso called what-if

Scenario

A scenario is a planned change worked out in full before anyone acts on it — moving a service day, splitting a territory, adding a technician. It answers what the week would look like afterwards, while the current plan carries on untouched.

Most operational changes are tested on real customers. A scenario is the alternative: find out first, then decide.

Why it matters

Routing changes are hard to reverse. Once a hundred accounts have been told their day is moving, moving them back costs twice. That asymmetry makes most operations change nothing for years, because the risk of being wrong is higher than the cost of staying put.

Working the change out beforehand removes the asymmetry. The question stops being “do we dare” and becomes “is this better, and by how much”.

How you notice the need for one

Changes are argued from opinion because nobody can show the outcome. Decisions get deferred to “after the season” indefinitely. The same proposal comes up twice a year and is never settled, because settling it requires evidence nobody has.

What to do

The discipline is in what you leave constant. A scenario that changes the territory, the frequencies and the technician count at once produces a different business and no learning. One variable at a time is slower and is the only version that teaches anything.

State the question narrowly before building anything — what exactly is changing, and what would make it a yes. A scenario without a stated threshold produces an interesting picture and no decision. With one, it produces an answer in an afternoon.

Related terms